Kalshi Research: Pioneering Prediction Studies
On December 22, 2025, Kalshi launched its research arm, modeled after OpenAI and Anthropic, to support academic exploration of prediction markets. Researchers gain access to the world's largest dataset of high-quality prediction data from Kalshi's platform.
The initiative includes hosting the inaugural Prediction Market Conference, uniting experts, traders, and forecasters. This move underscores Kalshi's commitment to validating prediction markets' forecasting superiority through rigorous study.
Initial findings from an in-house study demonstrate Kalshi's edge: 40% better than Wall Street on inflation across periods, 85% win rate one week out, and halved mean absolute error during shocks. These insights aid in anticipating market volatility.
Record $1.6B Volume: Kalshi's Biggest Week
Kalshi just recorded its peak performance with $1.6 billion in weekly volume, a 1,000% surge from 2024 levels. Expansions into tech IPOs in July 2025, sports like Super Bowl and March Madness (over $500M wagered), and AI markets drive this growth.
Legal wins, including the 2024 court victory for election markets and CFTC appeal drop in May 2025, have legitimized operations. Partnerships with CNN, CNBC, and institutional makers like Susquehanna boost liquidity and mainstream adoption.
Markets now span politics, economics, climate, crypto, Fed decisions, Supreme Court, entertainment, and chess. Prediction odds often surpass polls and analysts, offering uncorrelated assets for portfolio hedging.
Kalshi's Impact on Trading and Forecasting
As of December 26, 2025, active markets like 'Best AI at Year-End' highlight Kalshi's forward-looking role. Traders bet on top LLMs from Google or others, resolving December 31 based on rankings.
The platform's accuracy stems from financial incentives: real stakes yield honest probabilities. This has attracted Robinhood's 2025 launch and Polymarket's U.S. expansion, intensifying competition.
For global and U.S. investors, Kalshi provides diversification beyond stocks, with event-driven opportunities in sports, tech, and policy. Its regulated status ensures safety over offshore alternatives.